Diagnostic Offer · 02

Hire planners or own decisions? See the math for both.

A side-by-side investment model. Path A is hiring. Path B is governed decision ownership. We build both with your numbers and we promise to say it in writing if hiring is the better answer. Seven business days. Sixty minutes of your team's time.

$25,000 fixed fee 7 business days $15K credit toward Working Capital Release PoV
Why this exists

Every CFO knows how to model the cost of hiring. None have modeled the alternative.

12-18% annual attrition in demand planning roles
6-9 mo ramp time before a new planner is productive
~$120K fully-loaded annual cost per planner

SKU counts are rising. Channels are multiplying. Acquisitions are absorbing planning teams that were already running hot. The standard response is to add headcount. Every CFO has modeled what that costs.

No CFO has been offered a real alternative to model against it. Governed decision ownership has different unit economics, different ramp curves, and different capacity scaling. The Capacity Investment Model puts both paths on one page so the headcount approval is not a single-option decision.

Where it lands

A headcount decision is a capital allocation decision. It touches the same four lines.

Inventory is a capital allocation decision disguised as a planning output.
Cash
More planners means more overrides, which means more conservative safety stock, which means more working capital trapped. Owned baseline decisions tighten the buffer because the rationale is governed and the outcome is measured.
Margin
Hiring adds fixed cost that grows with complexity. Decision ownership has a marginal cost per decision that approaches zero as the system absorbs validated judgment. The two paths produce different operating leverage.
Revenue
A new planner covers a constrained set of SKUs through ramp. Categories not yet covered run on stale logic. Owned decisions cover the baseline on day one and free senior planners for the categories where their judgment measurably adds value.
Control
Hiring scales effort, not decision lineage. Owned baseline decisions produce an audit trail by default: what changed, why, who approved, what policy bounded it. The CFO gets governance as architecture, not as a separate workstream.
Size the problem

Two paths to the same capacity. Different unit economics.

You can size this problem before you talk to us. Drop your fully-loaded cost per planner and your projected SKU growth into the same shape we use, and you get a rough comparison in a sitting. The diagnostic engagement builds the rigorous version, sensitivity-tested, board-ready.

Path A · Hire Hire 5 Planners
Fully-loaded cost / planner $120,000
Recruiting and onboarding ~$25K each
Ramp to productive 6-9 months
Year 1 productivity ~55%
Annual decision capacity ~12,000
Annual attrition risk 12-18%
Year 1 net cost ~$725K
Path B · Own Own 50,000 Decisions
Annual subscription $400,000
Implementation, one-time $150,000
Time to baseline 8-12 weeks
Marginal cost / decision ~$8
Annual decision capacity ~50,000
Marginal cost trajectory declining
Year 1 net cost ~$550K

Illustrative ranges drawn from the model template. Your Capacity Investment Model uses your fully-loaded planner cost, your coverage ratios, your SKU growth assumptions, and Daybreak deployment benchmarks from actual production accounts. Path A figures assume mid-market mfg salary bands and standard recruiter fees. Path B figures assume scoped deployment for baseline demand planning across a comparable SKU set. Sensitivity analysis included.

Same capacity. Different operating leverage. The CFO sees both, with their numbers, and decides.
What you get

Three artifacts and a 30-minute readout. Built to attach to the headcount package on your desk.

Deliverable 01

Side-by-Side Investment Model

Path A (hire) and Path B (own) on one page, modeled over 36 months. Fully-loaded planner cost, ramp curve, attrition risk, productivity coverage on one side. Subscription, implementation, marginal cost per decision, capacity at steady state on the other. NPV and payback for each.

Format: editable spreadsheet plus 1-page executive summary.

Deliverable 02

Sensitivity Analysis

Where the comparison breaks. Move attrition up. Move ramp time down. Stress the subscription cost. Change the SKU growth projection. The output shows which inputs flip the conclusion and which do not. Designed for the question every board member asks: what if you are wrong about X?

Format: 1-page sensitivity report with annotated scenarios.

Deliverable 03

Board-Ready Recommendation Memo

One page. A recommended path with the financial rationale, the operating assumptions, the risks, and the next step. Written to attach directly to the headcount approval package you are already assembling. If Path A wins, we say so in writing. The memo stands either way.

Format: one-page memo plus supporting appendix.

How it works

Seven business days. Sixty minutes of your team's time.

A validated financial model template, populated with your inputs, stress-tested against Daybreak deployment benchmarks from actual production accounts. Your team provides the inputs. We do the modeling.

Day 1

Data orientation

A 60-minute working session. Fully-loaded planner cost, current coverage ratios, SKU growth projection, headcount request specifics. No system access required. The inputs you already have from your FP&A and HR teams are enough.

Day 2-4

Model build

Your inputs populate the template. Path A is calibrated to your salary bands and your hiring market. Path B is calibrated to Daybreak deployment benchmarks for comparable SKU complexity. NPV, payback, and capacity coverage for each path.

Day 5-6

Sensitivity testing

Every input that moves the answer gets stress-tested. Attrition assumptions, ramp time, SKU growth, subscription cost, implementation timeline. The output identifies which inputs flip the conclusion so the recommendation is robust under scrutiny.

Day 7

Executive readout

A 30-minute CFO-level conversation. The model, the sensitivity, the recommendation memo. Q&A in real time. If Path A is the right answer for your specific situation, you hear that, in writing, in the memo. The work stands regardless.

Pricing & terms

$25,000 fixed fee. $15,000 credits toward the PoV that proves it.

The easiest yes in the portfolio. Below the CFO discretionary threshold. Profitable for Daybreak standalone, which means we do not need you to convert for the work to be worth doing. The credit removes the "I paid twice" objection if the model points to a Proof of Value as the next step.

$25,000 Fixed fee. No retainer. No success fee.
7 business days from data orientation to executive readout.
$15,000 credit toward the Working Capital Release Proof-of-Value, applied if the PoV is signed within 45 days of readout.
Net effective cost on conversion: $10,000 for the Capacity Model insight.
Sixty minutes of your team's time. One working session for data orientation, then the readout.
The guarantee
Honest Comparison Guarantee

If the Capacity Investment Model shows that hiring is the economically superior path for your specific situation, Daybreak says so in writing in the board memo. The fee stands. The analysis is valuable regardless of direction. This is a credibility commitment, not a refund clause. We are confident enough in the economics of decision ownership to let the math speak.

What this looks like

For one $500M distributor, Path B beat Path A by $2.6M on three-year NPV.

Capacity Investment Model · 5-planner hire decision · 36-month horizon · anonymized
Pending headcount approval 5 demand planners
Driver of the request SKU count +38% over 24 mo
Path A 3-yr cost (hire, fully loaded) $2.4M
Path B 3-yr cost (own, subscription + implementation) $1.6M
Path A capacity coverage at SKU peak ~70%
Path B capacity coverage at SKU peak ~100%
3-yr NPV delta (Path B over Path A) +$2.6M
Sensitivity: input that flipped the answer to Path A SKU growth below 8% / yr
Board memo recommendation Path B + scoped PoV

Anonymized illustration drawn from a scoped engagement template. Not the deliverable for any specific prospect. Your Capacity Investment Model is built using your fully-loaded planner cost, your SKU growth projection, and Daybreak deployment benchmarks from actual production accounts. Actual numbers depend entirely on your inputs.

What this unlocks

Three steps that follow once you have the model.

The Capacity Investment Model produces a board-ready recommendation for the headcount decision currently on your desk. Two further steps follow if the model points toward decision ownership. The first runs without us.

30-60 days
Use the model on the headcount approval. The memo attaches to the package. The sensitivity analysis answers the board questions before they get asked. Decision either way is now grounded in a side-by-side comparison instead of a single-option ask.
Next quarter
Pilot decision ownership in a scoped category. If the model points to Path B, the natural next step is the Working Capital Release Proof of Value. One category, one horizon, measured baselines. The $15K credit applies. The PoV proves the model.
Ongoing
Scale decision ownership across the portfolio. Categories graduate from the pilot scope. Marginal cost per decision declines as validated judgment is absorbed. Capacity scales without headcount. Operating leverage compounds with every cycle.

Ready to model the alternative?

Seven business days. Sixty minutes of your team's time. Two paths to the same capacity, with your numbers, and a board-ready memo. If hiring wins, we say so in writing.

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